Chapter 1: The Business Departure

The significant withdrawal of businesses from Russia presents a complex scenario. Initially, one might argue that this situation could temporarily benefit Putin. However, this perspective contrasts with my earlier assessments, which highlighted the rapid abandonment of the Russian market by the private sector, an event that unfolded unexpectedly and undermined decades of effort to foster ties with the West. A recent article from the Wall Street Journal elaborates on this phenomenon.

The situation continues to evolve. I maintain close communication with friends in both Moscow and London through a messaging group. We frequently discuss the persistent flow of news regarding Russia's conflict with Ukraine and the country's ongoing decline. As time progresses, the infographics depicting brands that have exited Russia quickly become outdated, as more companies across various sectors withdraw from the market. Recently, notable exits include McDonald's and Starbucks.

McDonald's is perhaps the most emblematic of these departures. I vividly recall standing in a long queue outside the first McDonald's in Moscow's Pushkin Square during the winter of 1990, when I was just ten years old. Despite the harsh weather, thousands of people waited patiently to experience a taste of the West—a stark contrast to the dining options available in the Soviet Union. Now, thirty-two years later, many are eager to visit McDonald's one last time. It remains uncertain whether McDonald's is officially exiting or merely halting operations, but the outlook is grim. The isolation of Russia from the West, a direct consequence of Putin's actions, is now more pronounced than ever.

In recent days, however, I've observed a shift in the tone surrounding these announcements. The media coverage seems increasingly sensationalized. The war itself is dramatic, leading to an amplification of every corporate exit. Social media users seem to treat this as a game, eagerly awaiting updates: "Is Starbucks still operating? What about Goldman Sachs?" The departure of brands like Netflix and Spotify has been met with mixed reactions, especially given that many Russians were indifferent to these services.

The conversations I've had with my Russian friends, who are generally pro-West and anti-war, have been revealing. One friend expressed skepticism regarding the exits, labeling them as "virtue signaling" that inadvertently unites support for Putin among many Russians. They questioned the significance of companies like Netflix and Spotify leaving, noting that those who support Putin might not even be aware of these platforms. The absurdity of certain announcements, such as Ferrari and Louis Vuitton withdrawing from Russia, has prompted ridicule, as if these brands signify the ultimate collapse of the Russian economy.

Another friend echoed this sentiment, suggesting that while the initial corporate departures were shocking, the ongoing exodus now feels more performative than substantive. I countered their views, emphasizing the reality of war and its implications for business decisions. Various factors contribute to these exits—some companies are leading the way, while others face banking and supply chain challenges. The pressure to leave is compounded by social media dynamics, where firms risk backlash for remaining in Russia.

It's essential to consider that my friends, while critical of the West, recognize that the regime may gain temporary solidarity from these exits. However, I maintain that the long-term consequences will be severe, economically punishing Russia for its aggression. The foundation necessary to weather this storm was never established under Putin's leadership, leaving the country reliant on oil, gas, and a legacy of corruption, all of which are increasingly destabilizing.

Chapter 2: The Broader Implications

The video titled "INSIDERUSSIA: MASS EXODUS is Collapsing The Russian Economy. Pain is Coming." underscores the dire economic implications of this mass withdrawal of businesses. The ongoing conflict has led to a significant shift in public sentiment and economic stability within Russia, as the long-term repercussions of these developments become clearer.