Chapter 1: Introduction to Electric vs. Hydrogen Trucks

Recent research conducted by the International Council on Clean Transport (ICCT) indicates that hydrogen-powered trucks are not expected to rival battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe until at least 2040. The study examined the total cost of ownership (TCO)—encompassing both initial and operational expenses—across various fuel types and powertrains, including biofuels, synthetic fuels (e-fuels), and hydrogen.

The findings reveal that battery-electric trucks will emerge as the most economical option in every scenario analyzed for both 2030 and 2040. Noteworthy insights from the ICCT report include:

"Their reduced operating expenses compared to diesel trucks counterbalance their higher upfront investment."

"Urban, medium- and light-duty battery-electric trucks have already reached a comparable TCO to their diesel equivalents."

"For heavy-duty long-haul vehicles, parity with diesel TCO is anticipated between 2025 and 2026, primarily due to significant initial costs associated with the extensive battery systems needed for substantial daily mileage."

Initially, lithium-ion battery trucks faced challenges: they were deemed 1) prohibitively expensive, 2) excessively heavy, and 3) limited in range per charge. Consequently, the industry turned its focus toward hydrogen fuel cell technology as a potential solution for decarbonizing transport.

However, the dynamics have shifted.

In 2022, a pivotal report indicated that hydrogen trucks would struggle to match the cost-effectiveness of electric counterparts. Manufacturers are now producing electric heavy-duty trucks capable of exceeding 500 kilometers per charge.

Presently, the main argument favoring hydrogen trucks is the extended charging time required for electric vehicles, which some consider impractical. Nevertheless, European regulations stipulate a mandatory 45-minute rest for truck drivers after every four and a half hours of driving—ample time to recharge electric vehicle batteries. Moreover, forecasts suggest that by 2030, charging stations with a capacity of 1 MW will become commonplace, drastically enhancing charging speeds.

Thus, there is currently no foreseeable cost parity between electric and hydrogen trucks. The ICCT report states:

"In the long run, the total cost of ownership for fuel cell trucks will exceed that of battery electric trucks by 10-20%."

Nonetheless, over time, hydrogen trucks, particularly those utilizing green hydrogen, are poised to compete with diesel models. The ICCT report predicts that the prices of green hydrogen will decline between 2030 and 2040, potentially allowing fuel cell trucks to reach cost parity with diesel vehicles by 2030.

Other alternatives, including hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles, are expected to remain pricier than diesel options by 2040 and may never achieve equivalence.

Electric trucks will be cheaper than diesel many years sooner than expected – This video explores how electric trucks are on track to outperform diesel options financially.

Chapter 2: The European Charging Landscape

Is Europe 10 years ahead of us? We find out – This video investigates whether Europe is leading the way in electric vehicle technology and infrastructure.

As the landscape of commercial transportation evolves, the implications for energy and climate change are profound. Stay informed about the latest developments in energy and climate change research by following the publication Areas & Producers.