Understanding Our Inability to Halt Climate Change
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# The Disconnect Between Knowledge and Action
Humans have long been aware of the link between global warming and greenhouse gas emissions, yet little has been done to address it. In fact, American scientist Eunice Foote presented her findings to the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1856, highlighting the warming effects of carbon dioxide. By 1896, Arvid Högbom noted the potential impact of manmade CO2 emissions, and Svante Arrhenius further warned in 1908 that current emission rates could lead to global warming in a few centuries. Guy Stewart Callendar's research in 1938 established a clear connection between rising temperatures and increased emissions. Despite these warnings, and many others that followed, significant action has been lacking.
In 1979, anthropogenic climate change gained media attention, yet the public response remained stagnant. Over the years, despite numerous scientific studies and conferences, there has been no effective global effort to reduce emissions. In 1938, carbon emissions were around four billion metric tons annually, but recent figures from the World Bank indicate that this number has surged to nearly 40 billion metric tons.
# Government Inertia
Today, governments face a choice between renewable energy and fossil fuels, yet they consistently lean towards fossil fuels. The U.S. alone consumes about 3.8 terawatts of electricity annually, with approximately 82% derived from fossil fuels. Despite the increasing affordability of renewable options, fossil fuel subsidies remain disproportionately high, amounting to $5.2 trillion globally compared to just $167 billion for renewables in 2017.
Governments often revert to familiar solutions. Even with promises from various administrations, meaningful progress has been elusive. The approach to climate change has historically been one of waiting and seeing, but the urgency is becoming clearer.
# The Challenge of Carbon Dioxide
The carbon dioxide currently present in our atmosphere will take an estimated 120 years to deplete naturally. A complete halt to human emissions would still allow climate change to persist for a century. Current measures primarily focus on reducing emissions, not eliminating them. The only viable solution lies in completely removing carbon dioxide from various sectors and replacing carbon-producing energy sources.
# Organizational Struggles
Humanity's ability to collaborate effectively is often lacking. We view policies from other nations with skepticism, leading to fragmented responses. The COVID-19 pandemic exemplified this disunity, as countries independently implemented their own measures, allowing for widespread transmission. If we struggle to unite against a virus, what hope is there for a collective response to climate change?
The Kyoto Protocol aimed for a modest reduction of greenhouse gases but excluded major emitters like China and India. The Paris Agreement, too, set vague goals, allowing for significant habitat loss and increased temperatures that threaten billions.
# The Reality of Climate Change
Sandia National Laboratories recognizes climate change alongside nuclear war and asteroid impacts as a critical global threat. Despite some hope for technological advancements, immediate action is essential. Even if successful in reducing emissions, it may take decades to restore equilibrium.
The East Siberian permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon, which could double atmospheric carbon levels if just 1% thaws annually. An ice-free Arctic would exacerbate warming through feedback loops, further complicating our climate crisis.
While we might eventually develop technologies to combat climate change, the necessary global cooperation has yet to materialize. The urgency for action is critical, as the effects of climate change are already unfolding.
# The Inevitable Path Forward
Despite the daunting reality of climate change, life continues. Many may choose to ignore the urgent need for action until the consequences become impossible to overlook. Unfortunately, that awareness has already been overdue since the first alarms were sounded in 1856.