Chapter 1: The Urgency of Action

Recent assessments by the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveal some alarming truths about our current situation. Humanity stands at a critical juncture; if we don't act swiftly, the consequences of climate change could be catastrophic—leading to widespread destruction, societal unrest, and potential extinction. There remains a narrow window to avert this dire future, necessitating the rapid deployment of climate technologies, particularly renewable energy sources.

Reassuringly, the IEA's report indicates that we are indeed witnessing a swift transition toward renewable energy, which is poised to make a significant impact. However, a closer examination uncovers some troubling aspects.

The report highlights that wind and solar energy are expected to represent over 90% of the global electricity expansion in the next five years. This shift is projected to enable renewables to surpass coal as the predominant energy source by 2025—a monumental achievement for the renewable sector, showcasing the progress of this energy transformation.

According to the IEA, this growth will nearly double global renewable capacity, marking a 30% increase compared to last year's forecasts for renewable energy by 2027.

This is indeed impressive! But let's put these figures into perspective.

In 2021, global carbon emissions reached an astounding 37 billion tonnes of CO2. Energy production accounted for 73% of these emissions, translating to approximately 27 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions from energy alone.

In 2021, total global energy consumption was 160,000 TWh, with solar energy contributing 2,702 TWh and wind energy 4,872 TWh. Thus, currently, wind and solar make up only about 4% of the global energy supply.

If this figure doubles, it would imply that 8% of our energy would originate from these sources. By applying the average carbon emissions per kWh generated, we can estimate that this expansion could lead to a reduction of about 2 billion tonnes of CO2 annually. If energy demands remain stable, this reduction would equate to roughly a 7% decrease in energy-related emissions by 2027, resulting in an overall decline of about 5%.

It's important to note that these calculations are quite rough and do not account for the growth of other ultra-low-carbon energy sources such as nuclear and hydroelectric power. Nevertheless, wind and solar are the most rapidly expanding among these alternatives, providing a valuable overview of the situation.

To mitigate the severe impacts of climate change, we must limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Paris Agreement, established in 2016, set ambitious targets: a 45% reduction in emissions compared to 2010 levels by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. This translates to a target of reducing global CO2 emissions to 15 billion tonnes by 2030.

However, the anticipated growth in solar and wind energy by 2027 would only cut 2 billion tonnes of emissions, leading to an estimated total of 31.36 billion metric tonnes of CO2 in 2027, assuming emissions levels remain unchanged.

This indicates that, in order to stay on track to combat climate change effectively, we need to find a way to eliminate over 14 billion tonnes of carbon emissions between 2027 and 2030. Given that the energy sector contributes to 73% of our overall emissions, achieving this target is highly unlikely—even if every other sector were to achieve carbon neutrality.

Again, I acknowledge that these figures are a rough estimate, and they lean towards an optimistic outlook. Energy demand has been rising steadily since the 1960s and shows no signs of abating. This increasing demand is so significant that even with the expansion of solar and wind power, emissions from the energy sector could continue to rise. Furthermore, when the IEA mentions that solar and wind capacity will nearly double, it refers to the power capacity measured in gigawatts (GW), not the total energy produced annually (measured in TWh). Therefore, unless new sites are utilized effectively, the actual output from these sources may not see the anticipated increase.

What does this imply? Essentially, we are at risk of surpassing one of the most critical climate targets unless we significantly accelerate the rollout of ultra-low-carbon energy technologies.

Thus, while the report offers encouraging news about the growth of renewable energy, it masks a more somber reality. Time is running short to protect our planet and avert a potential dystopian future. It's a troubling thought; we possess the technology and the capability to address these challenges, but we need to intensify our efforts and fully implement these solutions. Let's hope humanity rises to the occasion soon.

The first video titled "The Clean Energy Revolution | Full session x ChangeNOW2024" delves into the rapid advancements in clean energy technologies and their significance in combating climate change.

The second video, "Enough Red Tape – We Need To Say Yes to Clean Energy | Rich Powell | TED," emphasizes the urgent need to eliminate bureaucratic obstacles in the clean energy transition.