Understanding Medium's Controversial Decline in View Counts
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Chapter 1: The Algorithm Shift
It’s not surprising to see that Medium has made some significant adjustments to its algorithm, which many writers have been vocal about for quite some time. Their concerns are valid; numerous users have reported a noticeable decrease in views and earnings.
Recently, there has been an alarming decline in visibility for stories across the board, affecting both seasoned authors and newcomers alike. Starting around mid-September, complaints about diminishing story views have become increasingly common.
However, one category of content continues to thrive on the platform: articles detailing financial success on Medium. Titles like "How I Earned $5000 Monthly on Medium" or "Making $3000 per Month Without Regular Writing" consistently gain traction. Have you ever wondered why these stories perform so well?
Perhaps there's a strategy behind the virality of these financial success tales. They could be part of a broader initiative by Medium to enhance its platform's appeal. Let's take a closer look at the numbers.
Currently, there are roughly 250,000 writers on Medium, a significant increase from the 175,000 writers recorded in 2020. Assuming a steady growth rate of around 15% annually, this figure seems plausible. Meanwhile, the platform boasts over 185 million readers—up from 161 million in August 2021, also reflecting a 15% growth.
This creates a reader-to-writer ratio of 740:1, implying that ideally, every writer should have access to 740 readers. However, this perfect division rarely occurs in reality, as many authors have thousands of followers while others struggle to reach even 50.
Section 1.1: The Paid Subscriber Dilemma
The underlying issue here is the scarcity of 'paid' readers on Medium. The proportion of paid subscribers is minimal compared to the total readership. While Medium has not recently disclosed specific figures, it’s known that the number of paid subscribers grew from approximately 400,000 in 2019 to around 700,000 in 2020.
Assuming a similar growth trajectory, we can estimate that by 2022, Medium had approximately 1.4 million paid subscribers. This number still pales in comparison to the 185 million free readers.
Medium appears to be promoting success stories to attract more writers and encourage existing readers to become paid members. By showcasing these narratives, they aim to entice potential subscribers who might be willing to invest $5 a month if they believe they can earn a return of at least $100.
If paid subscriptions increase, Medium stands to gain more revenue, which could then be distributed among its writers. However, questions regarding the fairness of this distribution have persisted.
Section 1.2: The Controversy of Content Promotion
Numerous authors have voiced concerns about Medium's apparent tendency to suppress well-performing stories in favor of promoting others. For instance, a narrative about an author making $2,000 in their first month on Medium is likely to attract more attention than a generic promotional piece from the company itself.
Medium strategically capitalizes on these organic success stories to draw in non-paying subscribers with high conversion potential. Once these individuals convert to paid members, the next challenge is to motivate them to write, often by initially promoting some of their stories.
While new writers may experience initial financial success on the platform, sustaining that momentum can become increasingly challenging, regardless of follower counts.
Chapter 2: The Future of Medium
As Medium continues to prioritize acquiring new paid subscribers and writers, existing contributors seem to be of lesser importance. Once you’re in the system, the platform effectively controls your content, deciding which stories to elevate and which to bury.
Should user engagement with homepage stories decline, the algorithm may temporarily revert to showcasing high-quality content. However, it often returns to prioritizing self-promotional narratives.
The trajectory of Medium remains uncertain, especially with economic challenges looming that could lead to a decline in paid subscribers. This situation could provoke further aggressive content promotion strategies.
Have you noticed a drop in your view counts? What are your thoughts on Medium's approach as a platform? We welcome your insights!
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