The Unstoppable Momentum of Climate Change: A Freight Train Analogy
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Understanding the Freight Train Analogy
Imagine a freight train barreling down a straight track at 50 miles per hour. Due to inadequate maintenance and poor planning, the train eventually runs out of fuel. Even though it comes to a stop, it has already traveled a significant distance. This scenario illustrates how climate change operates; even if we eliminate fossil fuel emissions, the Earth will continue to warm, and sea levels will keep rising.
A recent NOAA report underlines this reality. Simply reducing emissions won't prevent sea levels from increasing by another 2 feet over the next 80 years. Inaction could lead to a staggering rise of up to 7 feet. Key points from the NOAA report include:
- The average sea level along the U.S. coastline is expected to rise by 10–12 inches (0.25–0.30 meters) within the next 30 years (2020–2050), equivalent to the total rise experienced over the past century.
- Coastal flooding will undergo a significant transformation over the next 30 years due to rising sea levels.
- Current and future emissions are crucial. An increase of about 2 feet (0.6 meters) in sea level along the U.S. coast is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100, thanks to past emissions. If future emissions are not curtailed, an additional rise of 1.5–5 feet (0.5–1.5 meters) could occur, culminating in a total of 3.5–7 feet (1.1–2.1 meters) by the century's end.
Historical Context
The findings in NOAA's report (2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report) are not new. Thoughtful individuals have recognized for some time that the climate conditions established over the last 150 years since the Industrial Revolution cannot be reversed immediately.
Achieving net-zero carbon emissions is a pivotal goal outlined in the Paris Agreement. To limit global warming to 2 degrees C, the world must reach net-zero CO2 emissions by around 2075. To restrict it to 1.5 degrees C, net-zero must be achieved by 2050. However, achieving either target means adapting to a warmer planet. Even after reaching net-zero, temperatures will continue to rise.
Unfortunately, there is a delay between halting carbon emissions and stopping temperature increases. Climate modeling (Meehl et al.) suggests that even if we immediately cease emissions, we would still experience another half-degree rise in temperature due to this lag. This climate lag effect guarantees that warming will persist for at least another 40 years post-emissions target achievement.
Tipping points, such as the melting of permafrost, can trigger uncontrollable releases of greenhouse gases from natural processes, perpetuating the warming trend. Additionally, feedback loops, such as those from diminishing summer ice cover in the Arctic Ocean (known as Arctic amplification), contribute further heat to our oceans.
The Importance of Climate Adaptation
While adaptation is essential, it cannot be effectively implemented without a comprehensive understanding of the issues at hand. The NOAA report articulates this necessity well:
"Continuously tracking how and why sea level is changing is a vital aspect of informing adaptation plans. Our capacity to monitor and comprehend the various factors influencing sea level rise allows for unprecedented tracking of these changes (e.g., using satellites to measure global ocean levels and ice sheet thickness). Ongoing and expanded monitoring will be crucial as sea levels continue to increase."
In essence, we can try to evade the challenges posed by climate change, but we cannot escape them. While reducing emissions is beneficial, we must not fool ourselves into believing it will resolve the impending issues associated with rising sea levels. The onus will be on humanity to adapt to a warming Earth.
Further Perspectives on Climate Change
The first video titled "Momentum For Change" offers insights into global initiatives aimed at addressing climate change and fostering sustainable practices.
The second video, "Turning the Tide on Climate Change," delves into innovative strategies and the urgency of action needed to combat climate-related challenges.
Sources:
2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report (Source: NOAA)
How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise? (By Gerald A. Meehl et al.; Science)
Net-zero emissions — But no cooling down without Negative Emissions Technology (by WM House; ArcheanWeb)